miércoles 24 de julio de 2024 22:30:19

ECONOMIA: La estatización de YPF la profundización del fracaso

281

ARTICULO PRODUCIDO POR EL RECONOCIDO ECONOMISTA DR RODOLFO ROSSI PARA EL MULTIMEDIOS PRISMA. LOS DESCUBRIMIENTOS

El Gobierno argentino ha hecho, recientemente, varios descubrimientos. Le costó bastante tiempo. Por lo menos 9  años. Descubrió:

1)      Que Repsol (empresa de origen español), titular de la casi totalidad de las acciones de YPF desde 1999, por las que desembolsó US$ 15.169 millones, había pagado dividendos en efectivo entre los años 2001 y 2010, por US$ 13.300 millones. Especialmente, desde el año 2008 y bajo la circunstancia de la incorporación de un “grupo argentino”, con una compra original del 15 % de YPF;(omitiendo la incorporación de capital),  el propio Gobierno nacional alentó al efecto, el “plan de distribución masiva de dividendos en efectivo” (90 % de las utilidades de YPF), que en definitiva, fueron directo a las arcas de Repsol. Representantes del Gobierno en el Directorio aprobaron, con la anuencia del Ministerio de Economía de la Nación, la distribución de tales dividendos.

2)      Que la producción de petróleo, que en el año 2003, había alcanzado a 43,1 millones de m3, cayó a 29,8 millones de m3, en el año 2011. En 2003, YPF produjo el 44,5 % del total. En el 2011, su producción fue del 55,4 % del total. En gas, la producción total había alcanzado en el 2003, a 50,6 miles de millones de m3/día, de los cuales YPF producía el 33,2 %. En el año 2011, la producción de gas se redujo 46,9 miles de millones de m3/día y subió la producción de YPF al 43,8 % del total.

3)      Que como consecuencia de esta caída de la producción petrolera, la Balanza Comercial Externa de Combustible y Energía del año 2011, tuvo un déficit de US$ 3.250 millones, récord histórico. Para el año 2012, el déficit comercial externo energético se estima superior a US$ 6.000 millones, aun con la previsible declinación del nivel de actividad económica. Es de destacar, que en el año 2006, la Balanza Comercial de Combustible y Energía había logrado un superávit cercano a los US$ 6.000 millones, que representó casi el 50 %, del saldo positivo de la Balanza Comercial del Ejercicio.

4)      Que las reservas, tanto de petróleo como de gas, cayeron en un nivel del 65 %, en relación a las existentes en el año 2003 (actualmente, serían de 5 a 6 años el nivel de producción).

 

ANTECEDENTES

Es probable que la distribución de dividendos en efectivo haya influido en la descapitalización de YPF, pero también es de hacer notar que la caída y crisis de la producción energética fue general y no discriminatoria de la citada empresa. Es más. Oficialmente, se citaba que la importación de energía era propia del crecimiento industrial del país. Y que con ello, a la misma, se le agregaba valor nacional. Dispendiosamente, se importó energía a precios internacionales para satisfacer el consumo doméstico, que se subvencionaba. Los precios locales regulados, no tenían relación alguna con los costos de las importaciones. En los últimos años se desalentó la inversión en el sector energético. Las tarifas de electricidad y gas fueron congeladas y los precios de los combustibles líquidos fueron sometidos a presiones y vigilancia. La exportación de petróleo crudo debió pagar un derecho móvil, que mantuvo el precio interno en un valor fijo, siempre por debajo del precio internacional. Esta política aportó recursos fiscales, pero los “precios en boca de pozo” quedaron rezagados, tanto del petróleo como del gas.

La consecuencia de esta política de Subsidios al Sector Energético, que en el año 2011, alcanzaron a $ 41.000 millones (equivalente al 2,2 % del PIB), fue que las inversiones privadas se desviaron hacia los países que tenían precios asimilables a los del mercado internacional. Y probablemente ello, haya sido la  principal causa de la actual crisis energética argentina.

 

LA ESTATIZACION DE YPF

Considerado el petróleo un recurso estratégico de fundamental importancia económica, es aceptable la presencia del Estado como dueño del mismo en el subsuelo, en tanto que los concesionarios son dueños del hidrocarburo cuya exploración, explotación (extracción), transporte, refinación y comercialización debería supervisar cercanamente el Estado,  e incluso participar activamente pos del mantenimiento y desarrollo de tal fuente de “industria de industria”.

En la crisis energética que vivimos en el país, por la evidente distorsión de sus precios relativos, no cabe duda de la necesidad de un  Estado “amigable componedor” (y no la impronta de un “fighter” iluminado), para evitar su profundización, atento la existencia de las múltiples normas regulatorias existentes. No estaría constituyendo un retorno a la exaltación  “nacionalista”(manejo político, de aplicación ”efectista ”, buscado por el Gobierno), la aceptación inicial por la mayoría de la población de la “estatización de YPF”; si no un estado de angustia y aun desconocimiento real del problema, frente a acontecimientos de severa importancia, como es la abrupta dependencia del exterior de la energía. Es indudable, que una buena parte de la población aun no se ha percatado, que, la persistencia y aun la acentuación de la actual política energética y demás por el Gobierno, se fundamenta en razones políticas e ideológicas  y no económicas.

 

YPF, EMPRESA “VACIADA”. ¿QUIEN SE HARA CARGO DE LAS INVERSIONES?

Pero si bien el enfoque oficial se ha centrado, recientemente y hasta ahora, en la “estatización” del 51 % de YPF, es indudable que el gran problema, aun no se ha abordado y pasa, obviamente, por las Inversiones para recuperar y ampliar la producción de petróleo y gas y recomponer las reservas. La re estatización de YPF, sin la existencia de un programa estratégico de capitalización del sector energético, podría llevarnos a una nueva frustración económica, cuyo itinerario resulta conocido: desabastecimiento productivo, inflación y desempleo.

Evidentemente, en esta instancia, es fundamental remover los subsidios vigentes y también modificar la política de precios, ubicándolos en los niveles internacionales. El “modelo energético” del Gobierno nacional ha fracasado rotundamente.

Es notable señalar que, en tanto Petrobras (empresa mixta brasileña) tiene en la actualidad, un valor de capitalización de US$ 158.000 millones, YPF (representativa del 46 % de la matriz energética argentina) tiene un valor de capitalización veinte veces inferior, habiendo presentado a principios de la década anterior, un nivel de capitalización prácticamente similar.

También es de señalar, que los reservatorios no convencionales (Vaca Muerta) (Shale oil y shale gas), informados recientemente, de 22.807 millones de barriles equivalentes de petróleo (Mbps), no dejan de constituir una fantasía extravagante. De los mismos, 21.167 millones revisten la calidad de “Recursos prospectivos”, ya que a la fecha no se han perforado pozos descubridores; 1.525 millones serían “recursos contingentes”, basados en descubrimientos todavía no comercializables y solo 116 millones Mbps, serían considerados como “reservas”. Es de destacar, que para la explotación de los “recursos contingentes”, que podrían aumentar en un 50 % la producción de gas y petróleo del país, se requerirían inversiones superiores a  US$ 42.000 millones (información de auditoría certificada por Ryder Scott), importe que en las actuales circunstancias nacionales e internacionales, va a ser difícil conseguir.

FINANCIAMIENTO: FINALMENTE LOS JUBILADOS Y “POTENCIALES” JUBILADOS

Adicional a los problemas estructurales del sector con la vigente necesidad de aumentar las tarifas, reducir los costos, remover las subvenciones y restablecer la confianza general, es el esfuerzo de capitalización, lo que se debe promover. El “foco” inicial de la cuestión, parecería ser su financiamiento. No es dable contar por el momento, con el apoyo exterior por razones bien conocidas. Incluso empresas petroleras extranjeras interesadas, no serían en sus propósitos muy disímiles a los “criticados” de Repsol, a quien aun debemos pagar la “adquisición” accionaria de acuerdo al artículo 17 de la Constitución de la Nación Argentina, adicional de los costos judiciales (se comprobará si ”la seguridad jurídica es horrible”, como dijo, un alto funcionario nacional) y los costos políticos y económicos que, la expropiación “parcial de YPF”, nos provoca. Las disponibilidades y reservas del Banco Central, ya están dando muestra de agotamiento y fatiga. No podemos contar con ellas. Actualmente, el mercado de capitales argentino, es irrelevante (principalmente, luego de la estatización de las Administradoras de Fondos de Jubilaciones y Pensiones – A.F.J.P.).  A “priori”, quedarían solamente, los recursos del “Fondo de Garantía de Sustentabilidad” del Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino (SIPA). El mismo, con crecientes pasivos contingentes y una relación de aportantes/beneficiarios, ya inquietante a mediano plazo, es el gran candidato para el financiamiento imprescindible (aunque parcial) del sector energético nacional.

¡Pobres jubilados y potenciales jubilados! Seguramente, se les va a decir “que son ricos”, porque tienen inversiones petroleras.

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